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A money game exists in which the potential payoff from being robbed makes perfect mathematical sense… but I won’t play it. Will you?
“Pascal’s Mugging” is derived from the classic philosophical scenario of Pascal’s Wager, which posits that it’s rational for humans to behave as though God exists. If they’re wrong, they don’t lose much; if they’re right, they have an infinite payoff in the afterlife.
The scenario of Pascal’s Mugging stems from Eliezer Yudkowsky’s unique twist on the original wager: what if a thief promised you a tremendous payoff tomorrow for stealing your wallet today? At what point would the near-infinitesimal odds of a criminal rewarding you tomorrow actually warrant you giving them a small amount of money right now?
If we process the situation by using expected value, we could very well be giving up our wallets to criminals who we know without a doubt will disappear forever, and the math would reinforce our decision. The consequences of that mathematical rationalism extend not only into everyday behavior, but also into areas like artificial intelligence. If math can lead us into bad decisions, how can we possibly program AI to act in our best interest?
The next time a creepy baby threatens to steal your wallet, consider the nuanced ramifications in decision theory, probability theory, and utilitarianism -- and to what degree we’ve made progress on the problem over the last 400 years.
*** SOURCES ***
“Pascal’s Mugging,” Nick Bostrom:
“Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities,” by Eliezer Yudkowsky:
“Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence,” by Eliezer Yudkowsky:
“Pascal’s Wager,” Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy:
Benn, Alfred W. “Pascal's Wager.” International Journal of Ethics, vol. 15, no. 3, 1905, pp. 305–323. JSTOR,
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Online flash games platform and latest games news. With Gamesville, you can get paid in two different ways. The first way is through free tournaments for just about any game, including bingo. A second way to earn money is to play individually in games where you race against the clock. Some games even have progressive jackpots.
The betters constantly argue with each other: some argue that it’s impossible to win on express, others defend the opposite point of view. And if the express is based on the victories of some favorites, then in this case many experienced players at the bets will turn a finger at the temple and say that this is fundamentally a hopeless affair. This material will be a complete refutation of this misconception. And now we together with you will prove that it is possible to win on the expresses consisting purely of victories of candid favorites. Such bets will not be held at 100%, but a general good plus for a long distance is possible.
What is a powerfully motivated frank favorite?
This article is written specifically for those who like to play exclusively on some favorites. There are many such betters, usually those who are just beginning a difficult path in sports betting. For a successful game on expresses consisting of wins or negative forwards, we need to understand what is a powerfully motivated favorite. This is the basis of our winning strategy.
Any championship is a real show, when the leadership of the sports federation tries to attract attention with various tricks. One of these tricks is the scatter in time of matches of leaders of the championship. One has only to imagine, as in any league there are immediately 2-3 obvious leaders. And 1-2 of them have already played, they managed to win, this led to the fact that they managed to get ahead. And one more leader, who has not yet played, is behind. What will the players and coaching staff of such a lagging leader experience in completing the next round? They will tear and throw, but will try to narrow the gap.
So that everything falls into place, let’s look at a small example.
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The basketball championship of Germany attracts attention. Three dedicated teams constantly fought hard for the first line, walking alongside the whole season. The German Basketball Federation constantly scattered the meetings of these leaders over time, which constantly increased intrigue. Bavaria and Ratiofarm Ulm played on February 12 at 16.30 and amicably won their fights. But the third leader went to the site only at 19.30, knowing the results of his direct competitors. Basketball players Bamberg in full play laid out in that fight and managed to win on the road with a score of 57:76. In this meeting on the Victoria guests were given an openly small coefficient.
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It was better to take advantage of the negative Bamberg handicap. On Away (-6. 5) gave a comfortable coefficient of 1.40, which could be used. This option could be taken in our imaginary express. And you see how well he went. We could play on a bigger negative forehead, but we need more reliable options to make the express, so it’s better to use a small negative handicap of the favorite of the match, as it was in the case examined.
In the analyzed example, it became clear that such a powerfully motivated favorite, which victoriy is really needed. We can safely play on his negative handicap. Now it is necessary to find all the basketball championships, where exactly the same situation is observed as in Germany (several outspoken leaders) and catch a powerfully motivated leader.
Only for us it is better, when a motivated leader, it is necessary to play on the road. Then the bookies on his victory and a small negative handicap bet comfortable odds. But when a motivated leader plays against an uncomplicated opponent on his court, then in this case a risky situation occurs, as it was in the 21st round of the German championship.
Again we see how the two leaders played earlier and won their fights, and the third played at home the next day. He managed to win with a difference of 10 points. It would seem that everything is fine, the difference of 10 points is good. But only bookmakers put out frankly low odds on the favorite. Here such figures were observed on the pure Victoria of Bamberg.
There was no point in playing them. But such coefficients were exposed to the negative handicap of the hosts.
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Only in one office were asked to play at Home (-11. 5), and odds were 1.20 (low). With a coefficient of 1.30, only Home went (-13. 5). As we see, when using this option, we would lose. For this reason, home matches of powerfully motivated favorites are not very convenient for us. If there were good coefficients (1.30-1.40) on Home (-6. 5) or Home (-7. 5), it was good. But such options are observed most often when the favorite plays on the road.